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The transformation is complete. Virginia has completely shaken off the Democratic rule that has been around since the Federal troops left at the end of Reconstruction. The once proud (and arrogant) Democratic Party of Virginia is in tatters and must regroup if they wish to recapture the imagination of Virginians. For now, however, the Republicans have won the argument. In the words of Margaret Carlson of Time Magazine, "The Republicans own Virginia." In the early 1990s, the Republicans seemed on the verge of collapse. They were unable to defeat Doug Wilder for governor in 1989 despite the fact he was a black Democrat running in a conservative state. However, in 1991, the Democrats in the General Assembly gave the Republicans a gift to jumpstart their insurgency that has been capped at the decade's end by a complete takeover of two branches of state government, with the last branch not far behind. The Democrats used the 1990 Census to redraw district lines with a design to eliminate Republican office holders. They put fifteen delegates into eight districts and made sure that then-Rep. George Allen was placed in the same district as Rep. Tom Bliley. The result had unintended consequences. Rather than challenge Bliley, Allen ran for governor and demolished Mary Sue Terry in the fall of 1993. Several of the displaced House members ran for Senate…and won. Can you say "backfire"? With an effective 53-47 (the lone independent from Bedford is a Republican in everything but name) majority in the House and a 21-19 edge in the Senate and Gilmore in office until December 2001 (unless G.W. changes that, but more on that later), the Republicans will control redistricting. The only thing the Democrats can do is sit back and scream bloody murder as the Republicans were forced to do in 1991. The Republicans have a choice in how they handle redistricting. Obviously, they will draw district lines to favor Republican victories. That is part of a system where to the victor goes the spoils. They have U.S. Supreme Court cases that will back them up when they eliminate majority black districts. It is in this area that the Republicans must be careful, or they will have the same problems Democrats did when the federal judiciary declared the gerrymandered "black" districts unconstitutional. Virginia is still under the careful eye of the Justice Department by virtue of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. If it appears that the Republicans are carving up black areas to dilute their vote with suburban whites, the Justice Department will come down hard unless a Republican president is elected next year. Even then, the Republicans may not want to be seen as trying to dilute black voting power in their effort to solidify themselves as a majority "big tent" party. It wouldn't be too hard to draw legislative and congressional districts so as to minimize the urban, often Democratic, vote. For instance, the City of Richmond's population is 55% black. When you cross the border into Henrico County, the population suddenly becomes 88% white. The percentage is similar in Chesterfield County. All you need to do in order to dilute the black power, and possibly eliminate black legislators from Richmond, is to link city precincts with county precincts. The requirement of compact districts with almost equal numbers of voters could be met while pitting the suburban vote with the urban one. What the reaction of Virginians would be to such a scheme remains to be seen. I would hope that a move to stifle the voice of constituencies who tend to vote Democratic and tend to be minorities would not be tolerated. Republicans also need to remember what started their takeover of state government. When the Democrats tried to destroy Republican office holders, those Republicans didn't get mad, they got even. The Democrats could do the same thing if Republicans try to rid themselves of Delegates or Senators they consider being a royal pain. Perhaps it would be better to keep their enemies close to them, because at least they wouldn't be trying to run for other offices against vulnerable Republicans. Assume Gilmore scores a position in a Bush administration (rumors swirl that Gilmore's fervent, early support of G.W. will result in a position as either a Cabinet Secretary, Attorney General, or even Vice President) and resigns the Governorship in early 2001. Lt. Gov. Hager, another staunch Republican who is certain to run for the office in 2001, will take the helm and the result will be the same. I am always wary of one-party rule. As a sage once commented, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Look no further than Democrats in the General Assembly and the Congress before Republicans took over. The parity of the last two years has been good for Virginia and the exchange of ideas. When one party controls everything, innovation often suffers. The Republicans can afford to ignore the Democrats completely as long as they keep party discipline. With moderate Republicans such as Panny Rhodes having the swing votes will temper the hard-liners ability to keep discipline, especially if social issues rear their head. In essence, Virginia is the property of the Republican Party now. We must remain vigilant that the right wing of the party does not take over the apparatus of state. Visions of back alley abortions, mandatory school prayer in the guise of a "moment of silence", creationism instead of science, and a repeal of the Health Care Decisions Act (living wills) are not that hard to imagine with some of the characters in the General Assembly now. I am hopeful, however, that Governor Gilmore is sincere in his expression of compassionate conservatism and will continue to work with the Democrats and show them how a majority party should act. Otherwise, it will be no different than when the Democrats controlled the state. |
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