Come Tuesday night Virginia will have a new Governor-elect. It seems a near certainty that that man will be Robert McDonnell, the former Attorney General. In addition to Republicans taking back the Governor's mansion, the polls suggest that the GOP will also win the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, probably by a wide margin. What this will mean for the Republican brand in Virginia will be the subject of some debate. For the party faithful, the Virginia elections are being called a bellwether — offering a glimpse into the future of the Republican Party not only in the Commonwealth but also on the national level. Many Democrats dispute this, reminding us that Virginia has voted against the party of the president in every governor's race since 1977.
To recap: last November the Old Dominion voted for the Democratic candidate for president for the first time since 1964. Prior to that, Virginia Republicans suffered a string of setbacks, including losing the governor's race in 2001 and 2005 and forfeiting both their Senate seats to the Democrats (in 2006 and 2008, respectively). Now, for the first time since 2002, the Party of Lincoln is poised to win a major statewide office in Virginia.
Some say that McDonnell's impending election has helped establish a new paradigm for Republican candidates. For the most part, the former Attorney General has been running a substantially more positive and productive campaign than his opponent. This, of course, is not a monumental feat, considering the overwhelmingly negative campaign run by Creigh Deeds (D - Bath County). Many observers have pointed out that Deeds' campaign has been overly-reliant on attack ads, including going after McDonnell's now infamous thesis paper, while failing to establish anything substantive about his own candidacy. While the Democrat did see a bump in the polls after his opponent's controversial thesis came light, the momentum turned out to be short-lived. As soon as the thesis scandal began to fade so did Deeds' numbers.
McDonnell has also wisely focused on issues particularly important to Virginians given the recent economic climate. Desiring to be "a jobs governor," the Republican has focused his campaign on issues such as taxes, job creation, and transportation. Many political observers are cautioning other Republican candidates to take a similar path: emphasizing pragmatic solutions and employing non-partisan language. If the economic situation does not significantly improve by next November's mid-term elections, look for a number Republican candidates to run rhetorically similar campaigns.
There has also been some speculation that McDonnell has been served by Deeds' refusal to bring in President Obama until late in the campaign. Indeed, the role Obama played (or could have played) in this election will be the subject of some discussion. Defenders of Deeds point out that the president's approval rating is below 50% in Virginia and that he may be losing ground among the all-important independent voting block. Still others contend that Deeds is suffering from a lack of enthusiasm among the most reliably democratic constituencies — particularly blacks and young people — two groups who still overwhelmingly approve of the president. What impact Obama could have had on the Governor's race, for better or worse, is at this point, of course, strictly academic.
Mike Lanza is a third year student at Richmond Law and Editor-in-Chief for Juris Publici. Submit comments and letters to the editor via jurispub@richmond.edu . |
